Inflation has been coming down, with the latest data showing a broad-based decline. But it is still projected to remain too high for too long. In our latest projections, Eurosystem staff expect headline inflation to average 5.4% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. Staff have also revised up their projections for core inflation, which they now see reaching 5.1% in 2023, before it declines to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. This revision is due to past upward surprises in inflation and the implications of the robust labour market for the speed of disinflation. Specifically, we expect both wages and employment to continue growing strongly over the projection horizon, while output growth will be weaker this year and next. In this context, labour productivity growth will be lower and rising unit labour costs are likely to put upward pressure on inflation. Continue reading…

On 29 March, the European Commission adopted a proposal for a Directive making it easier for companies to expand the use of digital tools and processes in EU company law. The proposal aims to facilitate cross-border companies’ operations and to increase business transparency and trust by making more information about companies publicly available at EU level. It will also cut red tape for cross-border businesses, saving around €‎437 million of administrative burden per year, thanks to an EU Company Certificate or the application of the “once-only principle”. The proposal will contribute to further digitalisation of the single market and help companies, in particular, small and medium-sized ones to do business in the EU. Continue reading…

A currency swap line is an agreement between two central banks to exchange currencies. This allows a central bank to obtain foreign currency liquidity from the central bank that issues it – usually because they need to provide this to domestic commercial banks. For example, the swap line with the US Federal Reserve System enables the ECB and all the national central banks in the euro area (Eurosystem) to receive US dollars from the Fed in exchange for an equivalent amount of euro provided to the Federal Reserve. These agreements have been part of central banks’ set of monetary policy instruments for decades.

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Last week, the Commission proposed a comprehensive set of actions to ensure the EU’s access to a secure, diversified, affordable and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Critical raw materials are indispensable for a wide set of strategic sectors including the net zero industry, the digital industry, aerospace, and defence sectors. While demand for critical raw materials is projected to increase drastically, Europe heavily relies on imports, often from quasi-monopolistic third country suppliers. The EU needs to mitigate the risks for supply chains related to such strategic dependencies to enhance its economic resilience, as highlighted by shortages in the aftermath of the Covid-19 and the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This can put at risk the EU’s efforts to meet its climate and digital objectives.
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by Klaas Knot

I will attempt to walk you through the evolution of our inflation problem and the implications this carries for ECB policy in the next few months. As you all know by now, the decade of below-target inflation swiftly came to an end in the course of 2021. Our economies rebounded from the pandemic with households disbursing their growing deposit balances, but also with supply still severely constrained after a long period of pandemic contagion measures. Headline inflation approached an unprecedented 5% already in 2021. The unconscionable war in Ukraine, and the associated pressures in energy and food supply then pushed headline inflation into unprecedented double-digit territory in October and November last year, and to 8.4% for 2022 overall. The ECB has – with its tightening policy measures – mostly been leaning against the re-opening demand factors that first brought up inflation, while also guarding against a broadening of inflation after the second upward push by the energy supply shocks. As the latest figures show, headline inflation indeed appears to have peaked, and is gradually coming down, largely thanks to rapidly falling energy prices.
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The European Banking Authority (EBA) has recently published an Opinion on the draft European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) developed by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG). In this Opinion, addressed to the European Commission, the EBA acknowledges that, overall, the draft ESRS are consistent with international standards and any other relevant EU Regulation. In addition, the EBA very much welcomes the level of alignment with the Pillar 3 disclosure requirements reached at this stage. The EBA also highlights a few aspects that should deserve further consideration by the European Commission. Continue reading…

by Elena Pykhova

This year’s view of the risk landscape, with input from Best Practice Operational risk forum comprised of practitioners from over 50 national and international organisations. In this turbulent year, firms face a complex web of risks, some new and others very familiar but re-shaped due to new aspects and features. Continue reading…

This year, the EU celebrates the 30th anniversary of its Single Market – one of the major achievements of European integration, and one of its key drivers. Established on 1 January 1993, the European Single Market allows goods, services, people and capital to move around the EU freely, making life easier for people and opening up new opportunities for businesses. Over 30 years, the Single Market has led to an unprecedented market integration between Member States’ economies, serving as a driver for growth and competitiveness and supporting Europe’s economic and political power at a global level. It also played a key role in accelerating the economic development of new Member States that joined the EU, removing barriers to entry and boosting growth. Continue reading…