The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimate a panel Bayesian vector autoregression model for a cross-section of seven advanced European economies and produce out-of-sample forecasts of GDP conditionally on observed developments of interest rates and credit. BIS shows that, by using a smooth transition version of the model and allowing the parameters to vary across economies conditionally on their liquidity dependence (i.e. dependence on the availability of funding from external sources), it is possible to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. BIS concludes that the degree of liquidity dependence is likely to be among the important predictors of heterogeneity in macro-financial linkages across countries.
The message is clear: organisations must be held accountable for their social and environmental footprint. Therefore, it’s inevitable that speaking up becomes the next social…
Download whitepaper